Why are the infection numbers in Italy now, really could rise

Around 64,000 Infected and more than 6000 Dead: Nowhere in Europe is rampant, the Coronavirus as strong as in Italy. Images from overloaded hospitals care for horror, nurses and Doctors are working far beyond their load limits.

Especially the North of the country, especially the Region of Lombardy is affected so far. Here it was, by far, the highest infection and death figures. However, experts now fear that the Virus could soon spread in the South, rapidly — where people circumvent some of them still careless of the impending danger.

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In the South, the curve flattens out – on the contrary

At the start of the week the Numbers were still hope: For the first Time since the beginning of the outbreak in Italy reported a slight fall in the infection and death rate. The Problem is that It is mainly the messages from the North of Italy to fall into the weight, where is the drastic outcome of the government’s block starting to show finally.

In the South, the Situation looks quite different: Here, the curve flattens out – on the contrary, it increases really. The Stokes politicians and health experts, the fear of the second wave in Sicily, Calabria, Campania, Basilicata and Puglia. “We need to ensure that the distress is spreading to the regions in which its scope was previously limited,” said emergency Commissioner Domenico Arcuri on Tuesday.

Similarly, Silvio Brusaferro, President of the National Institute of health-ISS, commented: “We strive to prevent the Virus growth curve for the Northern regions to the South repeated,” so Brusaferro. This is now the biggest challenge of his country.

Three factors could add to the swelling of the Corona-wave in the South.

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1. The Corona-Fleeing

As around two weeks ago for the first Time the rumor about a Shutdown of the North made the rounds, jumped hundreds of residents of the Lombardy, the Emilia-Romagna and Piedmont in panic in the night trains in the direction South. They feared lock output (which arrived eventually) and supply constraints (which do not exist yet) and saw the salvation in the escape – either to Relatives or in their own holiday homes that have a lot of wealthy Northern Italians in the South.

Until the entry into force of the strict change of residence prohibitions of the government, it took a few days – in the Corona escape in the direction of the South continued. Since the incubation can last time at the corona virus up to two weeks, could many of the potentially Infected are now training only symptoms and treated. On their journey and after arrival in the South, most of them should have infected other people.

2. The Guest Workers

Since the beginning of the week, many companies and factories in Italy are closed: Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has not made all of the commercial sealing, which are relevant to the system. Most of them are located in the economically strong North of the country. Hundreds of Italians are there for guest workers in their own country. People from the structurally weak regions of Campania, Basilicata and Calabria.

Since change of residence under certain circumstances in Italy are allowed to continue, it is likely many of them now return to their home places. Further contagions threatening.

3. The Rule-Breakers

Many southern Italians are aware of the dangers of Coronavirus not be aware of. The North seems to be far away, the output of the prohibitions are ignored, therefore, often, the risk of contagion is tolerated. The mayor of Bari brought the Situation in the South a few days ago, to the point. He called out to some walkers who were, in spite of a curfew on the beach, on the road: “what happened in Milan or Bergamo, this is not a movie. This is really happening. The people are dying.”

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The carelessness of the southern Italians alarmed at the Tuesday emergency Commissioner Arcuri: “The majority of Italians respected the rules already. But we are pleading now all the Italians to comply with them.”

More than two million checks

Italian police have controlled since the introduction of the exit bans two weeks ago, more than two million people. The news Agency Ansa reported on Tuesday, citing the interior Ministry in Rome. Between 11. 23. March had been checked, therefore, a good 2.2 million people, more than a Million shops.

As it was, there were more than 100,000 Ads. Most of them for violations of the Curfews.

Sources: “La Repubblica”, Italian-style data center, the news agencies ANSA, REUTERS

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